2015 predictions, part 2

[faded_lace]

So I promised new thoughts on 2015, and so here I am with new thoughts on 2015. XD Maybe no one likes predictions as much as I do, but I'm having fun with this, so... humour me. XD;

As you may remember, I did a really detailed analysis of previous Johnny's volleyball support debuts here. However, since August, some new details have come to light, the main of which are:
✄ 2020 has not been as temporary as I was hoping
✄ A four member incarnation of the Junior unit formerly known as Sexy Boyz has emerged and is seeming more stable with Jinguji Yuta, Kishi Yuta, Iwahashi Genki, and Miyachika Kaito.
✄ I've seen Kaneda Yousei approximately everywhere
✄ Inoue Mizuki, who's usually opposite him, was slated for 2020.

Taking into account that they're supposedly announcing the full member list for 2020 at the end of Johnny's 2020 World, I'm going to make a new prediction based on the past criteria (breaking up the four member group, average age that's lower or at least comparable to the one from the previous year, including "fresh" juniors) and the fact that it seems like it should be a big group year rather than a small group year. And so, presenting my just-under-2-years-in-advance new 2015 dream team:

☆ Iwahashi Genki (1996.12.17) ex 4-member
☆ Nakamura Reia (1997.4.2)
☆ Jinguji Yuta (1997.10.30) ex 4-member
☆ Takahashi Fu (1998.5.8)
☆ Kuramoto Kaoru (2000.9.23)
☆ Kaneda Yosei (2001.3.22)
☆ "fresh member" (2003~2005)
☆ "fresh member" (2003~2005)

Number of members: 8
Average age: 15-15¼
Number of members from a 4-member Junior unit: 2
Age of oldest at debut: 18
Age of youngest at debut: 10-11
Number of "Fresh" members: 2

Things to remember:
✄ As I said above, the continuation of 2020 had a big impact on this; MatsuMatsu conbi seems undoubtedly out.
✄ Kishi Yuta will definitely be too old in 2015 to debut with a volleyball unit
✄ Reia is currently being featured with Kakuta Yusei and Takahashi Kaito because they can skate, but Kakuta Yusei is far too old and Takahashi Kaito is slated for 2020.
✄ Kuramoto Kaoru might be interchangeable for Hashimoto Ryo, who's the same age. Tamamoto Fumito is too old, but Haba Yuki is another possible choice.
✄ Morimoto Shintaro could be switched out for Reia, but at this point, I find it unlikely that he'd be isolated from the juniors with whom he's usually associated.
✄ The average age might be brought down by adding one or two more members, but it would also make breaking it into ani and otouto-gumi a little more difficult.
✄ If they want a smaller group, cutting Fu is the most reasonable option; he's the least pushed currently and it would reasonably bring down the average age.

So... that's it for now, folks! I probably will make at least one more prediction before the actual debut happens, but this is my current thoughts for now! And... I'm sorry I'm so weird. |D

Comments

[lovunic.livejournal.com]

Hi there...
I'm orin btw, how should i call you?

Just wanna say that i like your predictions. You seem knew johnny-san so well XD
But if sexy boyz's member will debuted as 2020 later, i want johnny-san to put reia with them.
btw.. Is that true that 2020 will have 20 member?

[faded-lace.livejournal.com]

Hello! You can call me Miranda or Mirai. I have an intro page here if you want to be friends or know more about me. ^^;

Thank you XD; I try my best. But Johnny has never mentioned putting Sexy Boyz in 2020, so I don't think there's any reason to believe that they would be. As of right now, Jinguji, Kishi, Genki, Miyachika, Amu, Reia, Fu, and Kaoru have not been slated for 2020.

And no, 2020 is supposed to have 40 members, two subgroups of 20 (hence 20-20). I really can't imagine Johnny's making such a mega group, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

[xanithofdragons.livejournal.com]

I find stuff like this really interesting (I also read the previous post you linked to). Even though I probably wouldn't be very interested in the 2015 volleyball group, it's really fun to read analysis of Johnny's debut trends and stuff. xD

Actually, reading your previous post about debut predictions just made me realize more how weird Johnny's WEST's line-up is. ^^;

Edit: My habit of looking through the birthplaces of Johnny's has got me thinking about something. Especially if we're guessing that the 2015 volleyball support debut will be more in the style of NEWS or H!S!J, I think there's a decent chance they'll want to pull someone who's from Kansai (not necessarily a Kansai Jr. but someone at least born in Kansai) or 1-2 members from non-Kanto regions of Japan. Because I've noticed that Arashi and Sexy Zone are the only volleyball debuts without members from Kansai, and Arashi is the only volleyball debut with members who are ALL from Kanto.

I noticed that your current picks are Kanto-heavy, but there's still the "fresh" members who could be from anywhere. Debuted Johnny's tend to be fairly Kanto-heavy anyway, so this trend might not mean much, but the Kanto-heavy aspect makes it stand out more when they seem to be purposely picking members who aren't from Kanto.

Part 1 of 2

[faded-lace.livejournal.com]

oh my god I had a five-paragraph reply written out and LJ ate my comment I hate my life.

BUT yes. I'm glad I'm not the only one who finds this interesting XD; I'm the sort of person who likes to analyze the heck out of whatever it is that I'm into, and so I end up doing stuff like this |D;;; Thanks for reading the other post too! I'm glad you don't think I'm weird or crazy.

And yeah. In my personal definition of the "modern Johnny's Era," there's never been a four person debut, and there's never been a non-volleyball debut that's broken up established junior units or not actually BEEN a junior unit, so I was utterly shocked when they announced the news at Tokyo Dome. In fact, my friend and I, who were far enough away that we couldn't actually see what was going on, only heard them talking, thought that it was going to be 7West for quite some time before we realized who they were talking about.

On the topic of Hey! Say! JUMP, I have to disagree with you, because no one in JUMP was a Kansai Johnny's Junior. Takaki moved to Tokyo before he ever joined Johnny's, and was active only as a Tokyo Junior, not a Kansai one. He was in the popular Tokyo Junior unit J.J.Express, and always took part in Tokyo activities. As for Chinen, I'm fairly certain he wasn't a Nagoya Junior, but just a regular Tokyo Junior who commuted from Shizuoka, but even if he had originally been a Nagoya Junior (and honestly, I don't really even count Nagoya Juniors as a separate entity, since they're divided either into Tokyo or Kansai depending on where they live), he moved to Tokyo before debut, and did all of his pre-debut junior activities in Tokyo, such as the original Hey! Say! 7. The only member of Hey! Say! JUMP who lived outside the Tokyo Metropolitan area at debut was Hikaru, who lived in Miyagi with his family, but I think he's since moved to Tokyo and lives alone, and either way, there's no such thing as "Miyagi Juniors." XD In other words, all of Hey! Say! JUMP were Tokyo Juniors.

As for Sexy Zone, I'm fairly certain that in the eyes of Johnny's, they were all from Tokyo as well. After some searching around in Japanese, I can't find any indication that Sou was a Nagoya Junior, but even if he was, he was definitely of the Tokyo half, as he did all of his Junior activities with Japanese Hi in Tokyo.

Part 2 of 2

[faded-lace.livejournal.com]

So NEWS seems to be the only volleyball unit to have any juniors from Kansai Juniors, therefore making it an outlier. I didn't base my 2015 prediction off of NEWS for a variety of reasons, first and foremost because NEWS simply didn't work out, and I hope that Johnny realizes that. Secondly, NEWS was an outlier in another way, that they had that fake pre-debut before their debut, and I don't see that happening again, since I've heard that it was a ploy to get Yamapi to go along with it (this is all just rumours, of course). Third, I personally just don't know that much about the politics of Junior-dom in the period before NEWS debuted, what with 4Tops and such, and thus I can't really base my prediction off of it. And lastly, there was just as Kansai debut, and realistically speaking, Johnny's just doesn't debut that many people from Kansai.

I based my picks largely on Hey! Say! JUMP because I see JUMP as a really logical model for how a volleyball group might be built, and because I know them well. I picked the ani-gumi from well-known Tokyo junior circles and units (Yabu and Hikaru were from Ya-ya-yah while Inoo, Daiki, and Takaki were from J.J.Express), and then half the otouto-gumi from established Tokyo juniors (Yamada, Ryutaro, and Yuto were all groupless popular kids in their time) and left room for some unknowns (despite having been in Johnny's for a really long time, Chinen for whatever reason never really participated in Junior activities until about a year before his debut, and Keito was in Britain until his dad decided he should debut, and he was a junior for less than a year.) While I personally chose my picks thinking that there was a very low likelihood of Kansai juniors being included, it is possible that some of the fresh ones could be from Kansai, or, more unlikely in my opinion, that Fu and Kaoru could be replaced with the youngest two from Naniwa Ouji. The rest (Nishihata from Naniway Ouji; all of Kin Kan) are either flat out too old or would have to replace Jinguji and Genki, and I really don't see Johnny's compromising on that.

So that's my reasoning! I know I forgot some stuff from the comment that got eaten >___< But oh well. I'm sorry this turned into a mini essay either way! XD;

[yomimashou.livejournal.com]

I don't have that much to add to this, but yay predictions XD Now that it's 2014... I'm both excited and nervous to be around watching what happens XD My thoughts upon reading this: Poor Kishi... he's seriously not going to know what hit him. (Kishi and Fu toothbrush song duet???) Also, poor Inoue Mizuki... I feel really bad for him getting pushed out by Kaneda Yousei >__>;;

The biggest question: how tall will Kaoru be by 2015? XD

[faded-lace.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I feel the same way. It's misleading, since the group basically starts activities in 2016, but we're closing in on a year and a half until the announcement is made in September 2015. But yeah, poor Kishi (; A ;) He really isn't going to understand. It's not necessarily that he doesn't have a chance (though since he's been doing Shock I've been worrying that he'll go the way of Yara and Hasegawa Jun and stuff...) but he'll cry, and it will be awful... it almost makes me hope Fu isn't in it, for Kishi's sake. It would also be weird for the toothbrush song to be non-4-member-unit members, but I guess that would be it, huh? XD;

And yeah, I also feel really bad for Inoue Mizuki. He must have been pissed when they put him in 2020. It's really not fair, seeing how new Kaneda Yousei is.

LOL pun intended?

[yomimashou.livejournal.com]

Yeah, poor Kishi ;A; I'm tempted to agree with you about Fu... for Kishi's sake, and also because Fu would hate to be separated from Kishi that way ;A; But yeah... with the lineup you have here, it seems like it would be them, unless they had like Jinchan and Kishi sing it lol.

And hahaha the pun was completely unintentional XD

[faded-lace.livejournal.com]

Yeah (; A ;) Though... I have faith that they'd stay together even if one of them debuted? I mean... Fu's love is pretty strong. But lol. I mean, they could just have Jinchan sing it or something, a la Fuma.

|D;;;

[yomimashou.livejournal.com]

Yeah (;A;) Fuma would let Kishi cry on him? ;~~~; And lolol I don't even want to imagine Jinchan singing it |D;;;

[faded-lace.livejournal.com]

Awwww, that would be so cute. Fuma would be so understanding. (; A ;) And lolol well. He probably thinks he would be the best choice.

[britkit27.livejournal.com]

Interesting! Sexy Boyz does definitely seem to have settled, finally - which is good in that now we actually know who the fuck is in it but bad, I suppose, in that it makes it that much more likely they'll be split up :/ Poor Kishi.... Especially if you're right and Fu does debut with them.

[faded-lace.livejournal.com]

We'll see if they give it the name Sexy Boyz again, but yeah... it's sad, but I guess even though my gut reaction is not to be, I'm happy that Reia's not in it...? If it means he has a better chance, anyway. I feel awful for Kishi, though. But I'm sure the two of them could push through?

[britkit27.livejournal.com]

I mean, if they follow the pattern they've been following, (formerly?) Sexy Boyz is definitelyl getting broken up, and other perople will definitely be brought in, so in terms of a debut, he may well be safer as is, even if it means he's not getting featured as much currently. So with that in mind, I think being glad that Reia isn't in it makes sense? Even if it is frustrating and worrying at the moment? But yeah, Kishi bb :< You'd know better than I how they'd handle it, but it seems likely? I just hope if so they don't go through the same trauma-broken-up-stage as Fuma and Hokuto did D:

[faded-lace.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I mean, unless Johnny seriously went off the deep end, they're going to break up that foursome. it doesn't make sense for a particular four member junior group to be emerging just abut 2 years before the debut otherwise. So yeah, it is better unless 1) they break the trend and take 3 from the 4 member group or 2)they decide on Miyachika over Genki, in which case, obviously, Reia over Genki would have been better (not that I would want Genki out, but Miyachika is pretty much DNW.) There's no way to know anything for certain, so I can't exactly help that my gut instinct is to worry when he's always in the back.

And I really can't see either of them wanting to break up, so hopefully, in the circumstances, it's fine... neither of them seem quite as... crazy emotional as Fuma and Hokuto.

[britkit27.livejournal.com]

Yeah :/ Johnny's, why you gotta be this way T.T

|D Slightly more stable, all things considered?

[faded-lace.livejournal.com]

Because it's Johnny's. :/ Discovered yonin Sexy Boyz got stage photos at Johnny's world. Sigh.

Yeah, I think so. XD; I man... who knows. But I hope so?

Here have this, I want to feel better.

[britkit27.livejournal.com]

:/

I really have no other response to that, just :/. Dammit, Johnny's....

|D maybe stable is not the right word. Less likely to react by blowing up/not speaking to each other?

omg boys |DDDD Playing the pocky game?

[faded-lace.livejournal.com]

This is why I say, I'm glad if it means Reia can debut, but right now, it just feels awful.

Yeah, it seems more like Fu would just be really intent on staying together and Kishi might get pretty depressed, but Fu would take care of him...

No clue, I haven't seen this magazine, but I hope so. XD Also this. Did Jinchan just grope Reia or something? |D Judging by their faces.

[britkit27.livejournal.com]

Basically.

Aww. Maybe Hokuto and Fuma would play good senpai and get them together and be like "Nope, we did this, it sucked, not letting you two do the same. Sort your shit out, we'll help."

|DDDD Yeah, there was definitely something happening right before that was taken...

[faded-lace.livejournal.com]

Ugh, it's just such an awful feeling.

Hokuto's too socially awkward but Fuma would definitely want to be a shoulder for either of them to lean on XD He likes Kishi a lot ever since Kamen Teacher.

Yeah |D;;; Also sob, that hair was so bad.

[britkit27.livejournal.com]

:< *sends hugs*

XD Aww, Fuma.

Yes. Reia, you're awesome, but you ocasionally make some questionable hair decisions...or your stylist does.

[faded-lace.livejournal.com]

What he said about himself in some magazine was "I changed my hairstyle too much in 2013!" XDD

[britkit27.livejournal.com]

Admitting there's a problem is the first step...? XD

[faded-lace.livejournal.com]

It doesn't seem to have had much effect |D;;; Since his hair has already changed XD;;

He should probably admit that there's a problem with his floofy boyfriend.

[britkit27.livejournal.com]

|D First steps do not always lead to second ones, I guess.

....yeah. Somehow that seems even less likely.

[faded-lace.livejournal.com]

Well, I guess we'll see what happens in 2014 XD

Yeah |D; all things considered.

[karmeejane26.livejournal.com]

This is very interesting, I also love to guess how will the juniors do, but I haven't been following them very closely at this moment. Many things come unpredictably, well, just like Kakuta Yusei. I didn't expect that coming, and I too believe that he had a high chance of debuting if this 2020 thing will be pushed through. Juniors come and go in this temporary group, they still haven't come up with the 20, right? and actually it confuses me. lol. XD I really don't know the current state of the groupings. I'm sure many fresh faces will come up soon.
It's probable that one of your statements might occur. I mean with such analysis you have. I agree with Kishi may not be able to debut with the other ones. Well, Kishi looks young and are always with the usual younger juniors. While Shintaro, being with the older ones. Haha.
And Sexy Boyz too, they often change the juniors in it. I heard there was Arachika in it. Plus I don't really like the thought of Miya with the other as I really like Travis Japan. But I can feel Miya is being pushed.

[faded-lace.livejournal.com]

Sorry, I think you might be confused? XD This isn't a prediction for 2020, it's for the 2015 FIVB volleyball debut. ^^; I made this post back in January, so things have changed, but there was, for a while, a list going for 2020 that didn't change. It included MatsuMatsu, fresh faces like Suzuki Shun'ei and Inaba Manaya, Takahashi Kaito, both Vasayegh brothers, and Inoue Mizuki, among other people. Recently, they've been quiet about 2020, so for all I know, they changed their minds. It's also possible that 2020 will be a temporary combination unit, like J Friends.

With Kishi, it's just a fact that Volleyball debuts always have a certain age range, and the average age has been decreasing. Genki is already borderline too old, honestly. If you check out my post here, I did a bunch of research on other volleyball debuts, so I'm just looking at the precedent that Johnny's has set over the past 15 years with volleyball debuts and making my statements and predictions from that.

Abe Aran was put into Sexy Boyz in order to fill the space when Kishi isn't there. I assume that Kishi has been busy since he just graduated high school and perhaps is attempting to go on to college, so for a while, random people were filling his spot (including but not limited to Matsukura Kaito and Okamoto Kauan). It seems that they chose Abe Aran so they could consistently have the same person taking Kishi's place. I think Miyachika's chances of debuting in 2015 are pretty slim with Jinguji and Genki as competition (you can compare to Hokuto losing out to Kento and Fuma for Sexy Zone), so it's likely he'll stay with Travis Japan, in my opinion.

But these are all just my opinions and guesses! So who knows. :)

[karmeejane26.livejournal.com]

Haha, I didn't realized i talked mostly about 2020, but I am not confused about your entry. Sorry for that. X3 It's still a experimental unit, well, yes, you're right, haven't heard about it at the moment. I already commented on the other post! :)

Yes, the Debut age is getting younger now, i think they believe that younger the better, a lot of juniors are getting old waiting for debut. Hey, what do you think about the older juniors like the bakaleya group and that age group?

Now that I think about it, kishi's the same as ryuu's age and already graduated from hs, i didn't realize that looking at kishi's face. Lol. Well, you have a point there. Sometimes, they can be really unpredictable. One thing is sure jinguIwa will be in sexy boyz.

Haha, yes, many things will still happen. :)

[faded-lace.livejournal.com]

Ah, I see, no worries XD Sorry I was confused about your comment!

Debut age is only young for volleyball units. Non-volleyball unites usually debut with an average age around 20, so depending on the configuration, the Bakaleya age group is pretty safe. For example, Hagiya Keigo and Shintaro are quite young, so they would balance out older members like Yasui and Kouchi. Kitayama debuted at 26 (KisuMai's average age was like 23 or something!), so there's still time for all of them. They're out for volleyball debuts, but frankly, I'd prefer they become a junior unit and debut as a non-volleyball group, anyway.

I'm a bit confused, sorry. Jinguji and Genki are already in Sexy Boyz. Sexy Boyz is the 4-member junior unit comprised of Jinguji, Genki, Kishi, and Miyachika. Did you mean you think the grouping is going to change? Because it's been officially announced a couple times now (at Johnny's 2020 World, in the Johnny's Livehouse Ginza Theatre Crea casting, etc) so I really don't think that it's going to change. Kishi being absent and having Abe Aran take his place seems to be mostly based on the fact that Kishi is busy, not that Johnny's doesn't want him in the group.

Yup! So I guess we'll just have to wait and see ^^