2015 predictions, part 2

[faded_lace]

So I promised new thoughts on 2015, and so here I am with new thoughts on 2015. XD Maybe no one likes predictions as much as I do, but I'm having fun with this, so... humour me. XD;

As you may remember, I did a really detailed analysis of previous Johnny's volleyball support debuts here. However, since August, some new details have come to light, the main of which are:
✄ 2020 has not been as temporary as I was hoping
✄ A four member incarnation of the Junior unit formerly known as Sexy Boyz has emerged and is seeming more stable with Jinguji Yuta, Kishi Yuta, Iwahashi Genki, and Miyachika Kaito.
✄ I've seen Kaneda Yousei approximately everywhere
✄ Inoue Mizuki, who's usually opposite him, was slated for 2020.

Taking into account that they're supposedly announcing the full member list for 2020 at the end of Johnny's 2020 World, I'm going to make a new prediction based on the past criteria (breaking up the four member group, average age that's lower or at least comparable to the one from the previous year, including "fresh" juniors) and the fact that it seems like it should be a big group year rather than a small group year. And so, presenting my just-under-2-years-in-advance new 2015 dream team:

☆ Iwahashi Genki (1996.12.17) ex 4-member
☆ Nakamura Reia (1997.4.2)
☆ Jinguji Yuta (1997.10.30) ex 4-member
☆ Takahashi Fu (1998.5.8)
☆ Kuramoto Kaoru (2000.9.23)
☆ Kaneda Yosei (2001.3.22)
☆ "fresh member" (2003~2005)
☆ "fresh member" (2003~2005)

Number of members: 8
Average age: 15-15¼
Number of members from a 4-member Junior unit: 2
Age of oldest at debut: 18
Age of youngest at debut: 10-11
Number of "Fresh" members: 2

Things to remember:
✄ As I said above, the continuation of 2020 had a big impact on this; MatsuMatsu conbi seems undoubtedly out.
✄ Kishi Yuta will definitely be too old in 2015 to debut with a volleyball unit
✄ Reia is currently being featured with Kakuta Yusei and Takahashi Kaito because they can skate, but Kakuta Yusei is far too old and Takahashi Kaito is slated for 2020.
✄ Kuramoto Kaoru might be interchangeable for Hashimoto Ryo, who's the same age. Tamamoto Fumito is too old, but Haba Yuki is another possible choice.
✄ Morimoto Shintaro could be switched out for Reia, but at this point, I find it unlikely that he'd be isolated from the juniors with whom he's usually associated.
✄ The average age might be brought down by adding one or two more members, but it would also make breaking it into ani and otouto-gumi a little more difficult.
✄ If they want a smaller group, cutting Fu is the most reasonable option; he's the least pushed currently and it would reasonably bring down the average age.

So... that's it for now, folks! I probably will make at least one more prediction before the actual debut happens, but this is my current thoughts for now! And... I'm sorry I'm so weird. |D

Comments

[xanithofdragons.livejournal.com]

I find stuff like this really interesting (I also read the previous post you linked to). Even though I probably wouldn't be very interested in the 2015 volleyball group, it's really fun to read analysis of Johnny's debut trends and stuff. xD

Actually, reading your previous post about debut predictions just made me realize more how weird Johnny's WEST's line-up is. ^^;

Edit: My habit of looking through the birthplaces of Johnny's has got me thinking about something. Especially if we're guessing that the 2015 volleyball support debut will be more in the style of NEWS or H!S!J, I think there's a decent chance they'll want to pull someone who's from Kansai (not necessarily a Kansai Jr. but someone at least born in Kansai) or 1-2 members from non-Kanto regions of Japan. Because I've noticed that Arashi and Sexy Zone are the only volleyball debuts without members from Kansai, and Arashi is the only volleyball debut with members who are ALL from Kanto.

I noticed that your current picks are Kanto-heavy, but there's still the "fresh" members who could be from anywhere. Debuted Johnny's tend to be fairly Kanto-heavy anyway, so this trend might not mean much, but the Kanto-heavy aspect makes it stand out more when they seem to be purposely picking members who aren't from Kanto.

Part 1 of 2

[faded-lace.livejournal.com]

oh my god I had a five-paragraph reply written out and LJ ate my comment I hate my life.

BUT yes. I'm glad I'm not the only one who finds this interesting XD; I'm the sort of person who likes to analyze the heck out of whatever it is that I'm into, and so I end up doing stuff like this |D;;; Thanks for reading the other post too! I'm glad you don't think I'm weird or crazy.

And yeah. In my personal definition of the "modern Johnny's Era," there's never been a four person debut, and there's never been a non-volleyball debut that's broken up established junior units or not actually BEEN a junior unit, so I was utterly shocked when they announced the news at Tokyo Dome. In fact, my friend and I, who were far enough away that we couldn't actually see what was going on, only heard them talking, thought that it was going to be 7West for quite some time before we realized who they were talking about.

On the topic of Hey! Say! JUMP, I have to disagree with you, because no one in JUMP was a Kansai Johnny's Junior. Takaki moved to Tokyo before he ever joined Johnny's, and was active only as a Tokyo Junior, not a Kansai one. He was in the popular Tokyo Junior unit J.J.Express, and always took part in Tokyo activities. As for Chinen, I'm fairly certain he wasn't a Nagoya Junior, but just a regular Tokyo Junior who commuted from Shizuoka, but even if he had originally been a Nagoya Junior (and honestly, I don't really even count Nagoya Juniors as a separate entity, since they're divided either into Tokyo or Kansai depending on where they live), he moved to Tokyo before debut, and did all of his pre-debut junior activities in Tokyo, such as the original Hey! Say! 7. The only member of Hey! Say! JUMP who lived outside the Tokyo Metropolitan area at debut was Hikaru, who lived in Miyagi with his family, but I think he's since moved to Tokyo and lives alone, and either way, there's no such thing as "Miyagi Juniors." XD In other words, all of Hey! Say! JUMP were Tokyo Juniors.

As for Sexy Zone, I'm fairly certain that in the eyes of Johnny's, they were all from Tokyo as well. After some searching around in Japanese, I can't find any indication that Sou was a Nagoya Junior, but even if he was, he was definitely of the Tokyo half, as he did all of his Junior activities with Japanese Hi in Tokyo.

Part 2 of 2

[faded-lace.livejournal.com]

So NEWS seems to be the only volleyball unit to have any juniors from Kansai Juniors, therefore making it an outlier. I didn't base my 2015 prediction off of NEWS for a variety of reasons, first and foremost because NEWS simply didn't work out, and I hope that Johnny realizes that. Secondly, NEWS was an outlier in another way, that they had that fake pre-debut before their debut, and I don't see that happening again, since I've heard that it was a ploy to get Yamapi to go along with it (this is all just rumours, of course). Third, I personally just don't know that much about the politics of Junior-dom in the period before NEWS debuted, what with 4Tops and such, and thus I can't really base my prediction off of it. And lastly, there was just as Kansai debut, and realistically speaking, Johnny's just doesn't debut that many people from Kansai.

I based my picks largely on Hey! Say! JUMP because I see JUMP as a really logical model for how a volleyball group might be built, and because I know them well. I picked the ani-gumi from well-known Tokyo junior circles and units (Yabu and Hikaru were from Ya-ya-yah while Inoo, Daiki, and Takaki were from J.J.Express), and then half the otouto-gumi from established Tokyo juniors (Yamada, Ryutaro, and Yuto were all groupless popular kids in their time) and left room for some unknowns (despite having been in Johnny's for a really long time, Chinen for whatever reason never really participated in Junior activities until about a year before his debut, and Keito was in Britain until his dad decided he should debut, and he was a junior for less than a year.) While I personally chose my picks thinking that there was a very low likelihood of Kansai juniors being included, it is possible that some of the fresh ones could be from Kansai, or, more unlikely in my opinion, that Fu and Kaoru could be replaced with the youngest two from Naniwa Ouji. The rest (Nishihata from Naniway Ouji; all of Kin Kan) are either flat out too old or would have to replace Jinguji and Genki, and I really don't see Johnny's compromising on that.

So that's my reasoning! I know I forgot some stuff from the comment that got eaten >___< But oh well. I'm sorry this turned into a mini essay either way! XD;