2015 predictions, part 2
Jan. 9th, 2014 10:49 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
faded_laceSo I promised new thoughts on 2015, and so here I am with new thoughts on 2015. XD Maybe no one likes predictions as much as I do, but I'm having fun with this, so... humour me. XD;
As you may remember, I did a really detailed analysis of previous Johnny's volleyball support debuts here. However, since August, some new details have come to light, the main of which are:
✄ 2020 has not been as temporary as I was hoping
✄ A four member incarnation of the Junior unit formerly known as Sexy Boyz has emerged and is seeming more stable with Jinguji Yuta, Kishi Yuta, Iwahashi Genki, and Miyachika Kaito.
✄ I've seen Kaneda Yousei approximately everywhere
✄ Inoue Mizuki, who's usually opposite him, was slated for 2020.
Taking into account that they're supposedly announcing the full member list for 2020 at the end of Johnny's 2020 World, I'm going to make a new prediction based on the past criteria (breaking up the four member group, average age that's lower or at least comparable to the one from the previous year, including "fresh" juniors) and the fact that it seems like it should be a big group year rather than a small group year. And so, presenting my just-under-2-years-in-advance new 2015 dream team:
☆ Iwahashi Genki (1996.12.17) ex 4-member
☆ Nakamura Reia (1997.4.2)
☆ Jinguji Yuta (1997.10.30) ex 4-member
☆ Takahashi Fu (1998.5.8)
☆ Kuramoto Kaoru (2000.9.23)
☆ Kaneda Yosei (2001.3.22)
☆ "fresh member" (2003~2005)
☆ "fresh member" (2003~2005)
Number of members: 8
Average age: 15-15¼
Number of members from a 4-member Junior unit: 2
Age of oldest at debut: 18
Age of youngest at debut: 10-11
Number of "Fresh" members: 2
Things to remember:
✄ As I said above, the continuation of 2020 had a big impact on this; MatsuMatsu conbi seems undoubtedly out.
✄ Kishi Yuta will definitely be too old in 2015 to debut with a volleyball unit
✄ Reia is currently being featured with Kakuta Yusei and Takahashi Kaito because they can skate, but Kakuta Yusei is far too old and Takahashi Kaito is slated for 2020.
✄ Kuramoto Kaoru might be interchangeable for Hashimoto Ryo, who's the same age. Tamamoto Fumito is too old, but Haba Yuki is another possible choice.
✄ Morimoto Shintaro could be switched out for Reia, but at this point, I find it unlikely that he'd be isolated from the juniors with whom he's usually associated.
✄ The average age might be brought down by adding one or two more members, but it would also make breaking it into ani and otouto-gumi a little more difficult.
✄ If they want a smaller group, cutting Fu is the most reasonable option; he's the least pushed currently and it would reasonably bring down the average age.
So... that's it for now, folks! I probably will make at least one more prediction before the actual debut happens, but this is my current thoughts for now! And... I'm sorry I'm so weird. |D
As you may remember, I did a really detailed analysis of previous Johnny's volleyball support debuts here. However, since August, some new details have come to light, the main of which are:
✄ 2020 has not been as temporary as I was hoping
✄ A four member incarnation of the Junior unit formerly known as Sexy Boyz has emerged and is seeming more stable with Jinguji Yuta, Kishi Yuta, Iwahashi Genki, and Miyachika Kaito.
✄ I've seen Kaneda Yousei approximately everywhere
✄ Inoue Mizuki, who's usually opposite him, was slated for 2020.
Taking into account that they're supposedly announcing the full member list for 2020 at the end of Johnny's 2020 World, I'm going to make a new prediction based on the past criteria (breaking up the four member group, average age that's lower or at least comparable to the one from the previous year, including "fresh" juniors) and the fact that it seems like it should be a big group year rather than a small group year. And so, presenting my just-under-2-years-in-advance new 2015 dream team:
☆ Iwahashi Genki (1996.12.17) ex 4-member
☆ Nakamura Reia (1997.4.2)
☆ Jinguji Yuta (1997.10.30) ex 4-member
☆ Takahashi Fu (1998.5.8)
☆ Kuramoto Kaoru (2000.9.23)
☆ Kaneda Yosei (2001.3.22)
☆ "fresh member" (2003~2005)
☆ "fresh member" (2003~2005)
Number of members: 8
Average age: 15-15¼
Number of members from a 4-member Junior unit: 2
Age of oldest at debut: 18
Age of youngest at debut: 10-11
Number of "Fresh" members: 2
Things to remember:
✄ As I said above, the continuation of 2020 had a big impact on this; MatsuMatsu conbi seems undoubtedly out.
✄ Kishi Yuta will definitely be too old in 2015 to debut with a volleyball unit
✄ Reia is currently being featured with Kakuta Yusei and Takahashi Kaito because they can skate, but Kakuta Yusei is far too old and Takahashi Kaito is slated for 2020.
✄ Kuramoto Kaoru might be interchangeable for Hashimoto Ryo, who's the same age. Tamamoto Fumito is too old, but Haba Yuki is another possible choice.
✄ Morimoto Shintaro could be switched out for Reia, but at this point, I find it unlikely that he'd be isolated from the juniors with whom he's usually associated.
✄ The average age might be brought down by adding one or two more members, but it would also make breaking it into ani and otouto-gumi a little more difficult.
✄ If they want a smaller group, cutting Fu is the most reasonable option; he's the least pushed currently and it would reasonably bring down the average age.
So... that's it for now, folks! I probably will make at least one more prediction before the actual debut happens, but this is my current thoughts for now! And... I'm sorry I'm so weird. |D
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Date: 2014-04-16 11:32 pm (UTC)Debut age is only young for volleyball units. Non-volleyball unites usually debut with an average age around 20, so depending on the configuration, the Bakaleya age group is pretty safe. For example, Hagiya Keigo and Shintaro are quite young, so they would balance out older members like Yasui and Kouchi. Kitayama debuted at 26 (KisuMai's average age was like 23 or something!), so there's still time for all of them. They're out for volleyball debuts, but frankly, I'd prefer they become a junior unit and debut as a non-volleyball group, anyway.
I'm a bit confused, sorry. Jinguji and Genki are already in Sexy Boyz. Sexy Boyz is the 4-member junior unit comprised of Jinguji, Genki, Kishi, and Miyachika. Did you mean you think the grouping is going to change? Because it's been officially announced a couple times now (at Johnny's 2020 World, in the Johnny's Livehouse Ginza Theatre Crea casting, etc) so I really don't think that it's going to change. Kishi being absent and having Abe Aran take his place seems to be mostly based on the fact that Kishi is busy, not that Johnny's doesn't want him in the group.
Yup! So I guess we'll just have to wait and see ^^