faded_lace | 2015 predictions, part 3!

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2015 predictions, part 3!

Some of you may remember this delightful example of how I'm nerdy to a crazy level back in August 2013. For those of you who don't, if you're interested in my analysis of Johnny's debuts for the past ten years or so, particularly volleyball debuts, please check it out! For those of you who think I'm crazy… please scroll past this post altogether |D;;; This is going to be another long and crazy one.

At any rate, I did another prediction a half-year later, here. My plan was to keep doing them at half-year intervals, but due to a variety of circumstances both in the world of Juniors (which has been pretty much lacking in information between the Gamushara Sexy Natsu Matsuri this summer and now, considering very few juniors with the correct qualities for volleyball debut were in Dream Boys) and in my personal life, things have gotten a little late. I'm sorry! I'm going to go ahead and do my 1-year prediction now, a little late (it's about a year before the actual debut, rather than the announcement), and then my half-year prediction in April, and, if all goes well, a 1-month-before prediction near the middle of August.

Of course, things have changed since last January, so I'm going to throw in a reminder of the ~Golden Rules~ before we begin:

General:
☆ Non-volleyball debuts are always Junior units first
→(Kanjani8, KAT-TUN, Kis-My-Ft2, ABC-Z, Johnny's West✝)
☆ Volleyball debuts are never Junior units first (Arashi, NEWS, Hey! Say! JUMP, Sexy Zone)
☆ Volleyball groups must break up a four-member junior unit
→(MAIN, 4tops, Ya-ya-yah, B.I.Shadow)✝✝

Volleyball Debuts:
☆ Volleyball groups have a large age range
☆ Volleyball groups have a descending average age over the years✞
☆ Volleyball groups either have 5 or 9-10 members at debut
☆ Volleyball groups usually include a few "fresh" juniors.

Footnotes:
✝ Since I originally wrote my post last August, Johnny's West has debuted, becoming the first group to have a non-volleyball debut without first being a junior group. However, since it was the combination of two preexisting junior groups and one member who'd been working with them for some time, it's safe to say that they regardless have a sense of unity at debut that volleyball units, who often have members completely new to the agency, do not.
✝✝ I am aware that Sexy Boyz has continue to fluctuate and change over the past year and may or may not count as a 4-member unit, however, for all intents and purposes, I don't think there's any alternative 4-member unit to be considered. I'll address this more later.
✞ There was one upward age jump between Arashi and NEWS. While the general trend is descent, I don't think that it's out of the question for this year's group's average age to be above that of Sexy Zone at debut.

And now, onto the late 2014 prediction:

☆ Iwahashi Genki (1996.12.17 - age 18 in 2015.9) ex 4-member
☆ Jinguji Yuta (1997.10.30 - age 17 in 2015.9) ex 4-member
☆ Ⓐ
☆ Ⓑ
☆ Inoue Mizuki (2000.10.30 - age 14 in 2015.9)
☆ Kaneda Yosei (2001.3.22 - age 14 in 2015.9)
☆ Kawasaki Koki (2002.7.30 - age 13 in 2015.9)
☆ Toyoda Rikuto (2004.1.27 - age 12 in 2015.9)
☆ "fresh member" (2004~2005 - age 11 in 2015.9)

Ⓐ
★ ➀ Nakamura Reia (1997.4.2 - age 18 in 2015.9)
★ ➁ Matsukura Kaito (1997.11.14 - age 17 in 2015.9)
Ⓑ
★ ➀ Takahashi Fu (1998.5.8 - age 17 in 2015.9)
★ ➁ Matsuda Genta (1999.4.19 - age 16 in 2015.9)

Number of members: 9
Average age: 14.8~14.6
Number of members from a 4-member Junior unit: 2
Age of oldest at debut: 18
Age of youngest at debut: 11
Number of "Fresh" members: 1

Obviously, this is more complicated than previous predictions and needs explaining. These are a few clarifications on my thought process in making this list:

① If it's not clear, basically, right now, I think there are two sets of options for two of the spots in the group, so there's two choices for Ⓐ, the older of the two spots, and two choices for Ⓑ, the younger of the two spots. The main factor that lead to this decision is that I'm not sure where Sexy Boyz stands. Sexy Boyz/Sexy Show could count as one four-member unit, which would make Matsukura Kaito and Matsuda Genta ineligible for this volleyball debut. But it might also not count-- it's been very off-and-on, and mostly seems like an "excuse" for all the crap that's currently going on with Sexy Zone. Even after the Matsuri, permutations of Jinguji / Genki / Miyachika / Kishi / Aran have been announced as Sexy Boyz, leading me to believe that maybe, Matsukura and Genta might be able to debut with this group after all. If you asked me, out of the "set ➀" and "set ➁" that I have listed above, which seems like the more likely, I guess I'd say "set ➁" due to the fact that they've been more heavily pushed recently, but it's pretty hard to tell at this point.

② There have been various speculations raised about the current strong push with Nagase Ren, Hirano Sho, and Takahashi Kaito. While Takahashi Kaito was mentioned in my previous prediction as a possibility if he weren't slated for 2020 (which was still a thing at that time), his current strong affiliation with Kansai Juniors is leading me to believe that perhaps he won't be included after all. Why wouldn't Kansai Juniors be included? There are a couple of factors to consider here:
→ Kansai Juniors have only once ever been included in a volleyball debut, and it ended in disaster; there are currently no members active in volleyball units who were ever Kansai Juniors.
→ If Nagase and Hirano were to be debuted now, Kansai Juniors would be in trouble, completely lacking "front" popular members. It is my belief that Hirano and Nagase are being so strongly pushed right now to fill the gap left by BAD and 7West, who had been the most famous and most popular Kansai Juniors for quite some time. I know several (former?) Kansai Juniors fans who now only focus on Johnny's West, meaning that if Kansai Juniors does't gain new popular members to fill the gap, they'll lose fans. I believe that Nagase and Hirano (with Takahashi Kaito) are being pushed to fill that gap. Therefore, it would not make sense, and in fact be detrimental to Kansai Juniors, to have Nagase and Hirano debut at this point with the volleyball unit.
→ While Takahashi Kaito is not a Kansai Junior, his current grouping with them leads me to believe that he may too be too strongly associated with Kansai Juniors to be included in the debut this time, but that's a more tentative decision. If I had to place Takahashi Kaito into this lineup, it would be instead of Takahashi Fu, as the "Ⓑ" choice for "set ➀" as listed above.

③ As mentioned before, Kishi Yuta will be too old for the volleyball debut and Morimoto Shintaro seems too associated with older Juniors at this point in time to be considered. Kuramoto Kaoru has left Johnny's since my previous lineup. I've added Inoue Mizuki instead of Hashimoto Ryo, because I haven't seen much of Hashimoto Ryo recently, and Inoue Mizuki is often featured in stage shows such as ABC-Za and Dream Boys. However, Inoue might be switchable for Hashimoto.

④ If they decided to add one more member and make it ten, Inoue will be bumped to the ani-gumi and they can add another "fresh" Junior. I'm a little hesitant about the fact that there's only one fresh member, but considering Sexy Zone was more than 50% fresh members, I suppose that sort of balances it out. Either way, if Inoue's position is bumped to the ani-gumi, he might be replaced with Tamamoto Fumito, who is born in 1999, since another young fresh member would bring down the average age. This would also divide the ani and otouto-gumi a little more cleanly.

⑤ If for some reason they decided to have less members (this is unprecedented, but not out of the question), Inoue would probably be the easiest to cut, also, because he's in the middle, and it would bring the otouto-gumi down to 4 to be evenly split with the ani-gumi.

⑥ Historically speaking, the "fresh" member should be someone with a famous parent who has lived abroad for the last 5 years at least. If someone like that crops up, please let me know. |D;;;

…I think that's about all! If you made it this far, otsukare!! Please feel free to ask questions or discuss in the comments! I know I'm a total nerd about this stuff, but if anyone else wants to discuss, I'm always happy to.

Also, I'll probably be posting the questions to the Myojo Junior Ranking again this year, like I did last year. I know it's a bit late-- I've already submitted my ballot-- but I figured it was fun discussing last year, so there might be some people interested again this year. ^^

In the meantime, happy Friday!

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I have LEARNED THINGS. #juniors101

Part of me wants Reia & Gengen BUT THEN another part of me thinks breaking up MatsuMatsu would be horrible so now I am conflicted. It seems like even one year in either direction could really throw off the average age of the group so I suppose it's pointless to hope for all three |D

& why is TakaKaito being pushed so strongly with Kansai? Was this a completely arbitrary decision from the beginning or did something precipitate this? Inquiring minds want to know.

Thank you so much for taking the time to write all of this up & explain it so well ♥ I really appreciate it as I know virtually nothing about a) younger Juniors & b) ALL OF THIS BACKGROUND INFO, so this is really helpful to me ;;

Yay!! If this was interesting then I'm happy~ ♥

Yeah, I feel you on that dilemma. Of course Gengen and Reia are my favourites, as well, but I'd feel horrible wishing to break up MatsuMatsu. Adding both Matsukura and Reia would bring the average age up to 15, which is feasible but not likely in my opinion. XD; I guess there's really no way to know, though. Sigh.

I don't know if something really precipitated it, but I can give you a brief history of Takaito's position in the world, if you want XD; Following his joining Johnny's about a year ago, he was originally slated for 2020 (along with MatsuMatsu and a lot of other people). When 2020 stopped really being a thing around fall 2013, he was then grouped with Reia and Kakuta Yusei in a three person group which was featured on Shounen Club and in Johnny's World. However, people were surprised in March 2014 when Kakuta did not appear in the pamphlet for the Sexy Zone spring tour, and when he was not announced to be on the Gamushara TV show. It subsequently became known that he quit Johnny's, and then Takaito was grouped with Reia alone for a short while. The two performed together at the Sexy Zone concert and in Gamushara J's Party shows, as well as on Shounen Club, but a two member Junior unit is hard to sustain, and their personalities really don't click well together, because Reia is best being support to someone with a flashy personality like Jinguji or Fu, and Takaito is quiet and shy and awkward. The pair was given the name "Sexy Jr." and grouped with "Sexy Age," which was Hirano and Nagase in April of 2014, when Crea was announced. During Sexy Zone's Yokohama shows in May of 2014 was the first time Takaito was seen performing with Hirano and Nagase; their song "Ai no Mikata" was done during the MC and explained as a preview for Crea. This was, in fact, a good preview of what Crea would turn out to be, since it was basically Takaito, Hirano, and Nagase's show, and Reia had nothing to do with anything. From then on Takaito has been a group with Nagase and Hirano and has only occasionally been Reia's shinme (basically only in things that are Tokyo-only, like the Gamushara Matsuri). Why? I have no clue. But I suppose they were looking for someone to drag Tokyo Junior fans into Kansai, and he was a free(?) agent at the right time, of the right age. I'm really not sure. >__<;;

You're welcome! Like I said… I enjoy it ahaha. ♥

I really love these posts. ^^ It's so much fun to see the patterns in Johnny's and think about where they're going.

I feel like I could follow Jrs. so much better if Johnny's hadn't gone all anti-stable-Jr-units in the past few years. >_

Aww, yay! I'm really happy to hear that other people find it interesting, not just me XD; I also enjoy looking at the patterns!

And yeah x__x;; I really don't understand what caused the switch, but I wish it'd go back. This whole thing is just a mess that makes no sense.

Yay predictions! I think there is something comforting in trying to find what patterns and predictability you can in this stuff... even with the knowledge that really, anything could happen XD

But all of this makes sense to me~ If Reia and Fu could be in, that would really be a dream come true ;___; I can't believe we're less than a year away from the announcement.

What do you think about the possibility of other kids, like Hayashi Ren etc? Hayashi is the same age as Inoue... but you know that I'm partial to Inoue ahaha |D And he's been in Johnny's for so long, it would really suck for him to be passed over. (But the same goes for Hashimoto Ryo, etc...)

Yeah, I agree. We can never know everything, but I'd rather be aware and informed than stumbling around in the dark, you know?

But yeah, I agree ;___; While I want Gengen in, especially, and I love MatsuMatsu, I just see them as having more potential to succeed if they don't debut this time around. Reia really needs this break, and he's been working hard for so long ;___; But yeah, it's really insane. I'm bracing myself and telling myself I have Genki in 2015 no matter what, but… it's hard.

I… actually forgot entirely about Hayashi Ren, because I suck. XD;; He's had a recent push, so it could be him. I guess I'd give him about the same probability as Hashimoto? Inoue just gets to do more, which is why my money is on him right now. So I'd rank:
1) Inoue Mizuki
2) Hashimoto Ryo/Hayashi Ren
3) Tamamoto Fumito
4) Haba Yuki
Am I forgetting anyone else? Poor Tamamoto is too old, and Haba has been pretty much forsaken…

Yeah, having MatsuMatsu lead the juniors after 2015 would be a really good outcome, I think, as much as I would feel bad for them in the moment ;;

Yeah, that makes sense to me. I think that's all of chibi6 since Tamamoto is too old XD

The more I think about it, the more it makes sense to me. Reia and Fu definitely wouldn't have the same… staying power? that MatsuMatsu would, in that position. I honestly can't imagine much happening to either Reia or Fu besides fading out-- Fu would probably end up doing dance stuff, and I honestly don't know what for Reia. He's not a natural leader, he's a natural supporter. And MatsuMatsu have more star-power, I guess. It just seems to make more sense. Not that the agency ever makes any sense, but you know.

The advantage that Hayashi and Hashimoto have over Inoue is that they look older, honestly. They'd be otouto-gumi, yeah, but they wouldn't be the babies and the goal is to draw in middle schoolers and stuff, too. I think they have a more "cool" aura than Inoue, who still has a round babyface. So there is that, but Inoue still has more experience in terms of being in shows.

Yeah... Reia and Fu feel more attached to the Sexy Boyz group of people, while MatsuMatsu feel more like the next people coming up, I guess? But who knows what the people behind the scenes think.

Yeah, that makes sense |D Although Hayashi still looks pretty young, too...but who knows how much any of them will change over the next year XD For the youngest set, there's also Vasayegh Wataru--he hasn't been pushed recently, but Johnny's does love half people... He's between Kawasaki and Toyoda in age, so idk how that would affect things.

Yeah, I agree. It feels more like Ya-ya-yah/JJ Express with Reia and Fu to Jinguji and Genki imho.

Hayashi still looks young, but he looks more like he'll grow up "typically" cool, I guess? I really can't imagine the younger set not including Kawasaki, which makes Toyoda, being younger, a better option, but Johnny's does like half kids. However, Wataru is also kind of weird looking… just saying. |D;

have you been correct in your predictions in previous years? XD just curious, i read the whole prediction and i enjoyed it :3 honestly as long as Genki and Jinguji are debuted~ i'm good~

No, I haven't, but that's because I haven't done a prediction like this in the past, either. XD Four years is a long time, and four years ago I was naive like everyone else and thought that B.I.Shadow was going to debut. I've learned a lot since then, which is why I feel like I can do predictions like this now.

i see XD well i enjoyed reading it :D as long as Genki is in that line up i'm good lol

I'm glad you enjoyed it. ^^

i am just think is it volley ball debut only or mostly for junior in the early age? I mean in the junior/senior high school? Actually takakai is gaining popularity now, but he always with hirasho and ren so sometimes I think they will take the volleyball debut. then, if aran will debute, it will be hard for traja. Hmm..but okay lets see..

btw, now i am living in japan exactly in tokyo, sometimes I really want to attend some junior show like dreamboys jet and other. Let me ask to you, how you get the ticket?

Thank you very much~ I hope we can get along ~ :D

Edited 2014-11-15 09:23 (UTC)

It is only volleyball debuts which feature younger kids. The majority or even all of the members of Kanjani8, KAT-TUN, Kis-My-Ft2, and ABC-Z were 20 years or older when they debuted. It's only volleyball debuts where the majority of the members are under 20.

Like I said above in point ②, I recognize that Takahashi Kaito is popular right now. However, because the Hirano and Nagase are needed to lead Kansai Juniors right now, and would cause trouble for the Kansai Juniors if were debuted, I think Takakhashi Kaito may also not debut due to his strong tie with Kansai.

I find it highly unlikely that Abe Aran will debut due to 1) his strong tie with stage work within Travis Japan and 2) his membership in Sexy Boyz, which will likely only have Jinguji and Genki debut in 2015.

I am a member of the Junior fanclub and get tickets through balloting just like any other fan. The only advice I can give you is to either find a friend who is willing to ballot for you, wait until the fanclub opens up for new memberships, or use a resale site like ticket.co.jp. However, Dream Boys JET was a one-time show in 2013, so I have doubts that it will happen again, since they returned to regular Dream Boys again this year.

I hope that helps. Please feel free to ask if you have any other questions about joining the fanclubs or getting tickets.

oh.. I see..okay thank you for the advice :D

No problem, and you're welcome. Please feel free to PM me (and make sure you have PM responses turned on if you don't use it often!) if you ever have any other questions. ^^

Damn... Thanks for the update! It's really interesting seeing everything written out like this.

It does seem kind of random that they just stuck Takaito with Kansai people, but I definitely agree that debuting their newest famous Kansai juniors right after a full Kansai debut seems like a bad plan and is thus unlikely...they'd had BAD and Seven West around for a while right? Someone has to step into their spot.

Ugh idk what to do about the two up for grabs anigumi spots >< Matsumatsu are such a cute pair and I definitely don't want them split up and want them to debut but... Reia ;; and Fu's a sweetheart and I think they'd work well with Jinchan and Genki and auuuugh.

Junior fandom y u gotta be heartbreaking by design ;;;

You're welcome. Conversely, thanks for reading my ramblings, ahaha.

I don't really understand the move either, but it doesn't seem to be changing any time soon, so I'm just rolling with it right now. You have to remember, too, that with B.I.Shadow, for example, the ones who had been in the agency longer were the ones who debuted, while the two who sprung to popularity rapidly right after joining were the ones who got screwed over. But who knows. At any rate, B.A.D has existed since they were created to fill the gap from Eito (as far as I know; they existed for ten years), and 7West also were around since maybe 2008 or so, when they were all quite young, so I really don't feel like debuting Kansai members is in the cards right now. Knocking on wood; maybe I'm wrong, but it doesn't make sense to debut them right away.

Like I said in other comments… I think that MatsuMatsu still have a shot at debut if they don't debut now, whereas Reia and Fu are pretty much screwed if they don't make this cut, so while I'm obviously biased, I'm much more heavily in support of Reia and Fu. MatsuMatsu also still have potential as Juniors, I think-- they have the energy and charisma that it would take to become the next Yasui or whatever, while Fu and Reia don't stand alone as well without their group of friends. So I'm really crossing my fingers for Reia.

If you don't hear from me after the debut is announced you know I'm living in my closet.

It's really interesting to see the logic behind it all! XD thank you for writing it out, seriously.

Yeah no, it would definitely leave a vacuum in the Kansai Junior fandom so... it really wouldn't make sense.

I see... Fingers definitely crossed here as well ;; ugh I hope we can all survive the next year >< not to mention after...

Don't disappear into your closet! DD: I'd miss you

You're welcome. Honestly I enjoy it, so. |D;;;

Hey! I really enjoyed to read your predictions. Are you planning to write a new one? There have been some changes in Johhnys by this time.
Agency made bakaleya6 into now official SixTONES when people started to lose faith of them and let it go with idea them to be together (I shipped then anyways, I m really have now *blushing emoji*), "Sexy boys" juniors are combined with ShoRenKaito for Mr. King vs Mr. Prince, some chibi juniors got name Chuusan Trio. Johhny's returned to giving juniors names as I see.

Thanks so much! I'm glad that they were an enjoyable read, as it was enjoyable for me to write them! I've sort of taken a step back from Junior fandom, as it was getting a bit stressful for me for a variety of reasons, (one being the inconsistency of a lot of things, like groups and group names), but I'm happy to discuss here ^^

The only real "group name" that I would consider to be "like before" is SixTONES. They're a group that have worked together for a long time, and they were officially announced as being named after a long time of wanting a name. They are also pretty much perfectly on track for a non-volleyball debut sometime around 2017-- the average age of non-volleyball groups is higher than 20, and at that point their average age will be somewhere around 22, which will be about right. I still have hope that SixTONES can debut the same way that Kis-My-Ft2 or KAT-TUN did, after a long time as a popular and talented Junior unit.

As for "Sexy Boyz" / "Mr. King vs Mr. Prince" / "Chuusan Trio," etc, I don't really put a lot of stock into what gets said in the short term for these kids. "Sexy Boyz" has been technically a junior unit for several years and the only remaining original member is Jinguji Yuta; it's been changed out about a dozen times, and has fluctuated from 15 members at the highest (I think?) to 3 members at the fewest. It's true that there have been changes in Junior units in the past (3 member B.I.Shadow -> 4 member B.I Shadow; Kis-My-Ft2 losing Iida, ABC becoming ABC-Z, etc), but usually these are changes based on members joining or leaving the agency, or are permanent one-time changes. The degree of flux gives me a little bit of pause before assuming that things like the out groups involving these members (Boyz/Show; King/Prince) are very permanent either. If you consider King/Prince a real unit, Jinguji and Genki are now in 3 different units, which is pretty ridiculous in my opinion. It was announced as a support unit for the Summer Station, so we'll have to see what happens after the Summer Station ends. As for Chuusan Trio, I'll believe it when I see it in writing for at least 6 months consistently in magazines. These things tend to get announced and then have very little follow-through (anyone remember twenty-twenty? XD;) so I don't really think it's worth making judgements this early in the game.

Sorry if this doesn't really answer a lot of your questions XD; But the real answer is, I don't really know anymore. Things that were consistent in the agency for many years seem much less consistent recently, and with the announcement that for some reason the FIVB world cup is really early, in June this year rather than late fall, and that 3 member Sexy Zone will be the support again, rather than a new group, I don't even know that there's going to be any volleyball debut. The agency is still a mess in terms of the Sexy Zone and Juniors, in my opinion, so I really have no idea what's going to happen from here. All we can do is hope for the best for our favourite boys, I guess! XD;

Please let me know if you want to discuss anything else, though! I love discussion~ Thanks for your comment!

Your opinion on todays situation of juniors seems real, thank you for answering to me ^.^

You're welcome, I'm glad to help. ^^

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2015 predictions, part 3!

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